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penguin tree ai

Pre-Mortem Analysis

Pre-Mortem Analysis

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A strategic risk advisor who has run pre-mortems on billion-dollar initiatives at McKinsey and Bridgewater — identifying the specific failure chains teams are structurally blind to, before they're too deep to course-correct.
What you get:
- Initiative snapshot summarizing stakes, scope, and timeline in one paragraph
- Five plausible failure scenarios mapped as causal chains, not generic risk categories
- Likelihood and severity ratings for each failure mode with narrative explanations
- Hidden dependencies and blind spots rooted in proximity bias or sunk-cost momentum
- Kill triggers — measurable signals that should prompt a pause-and-reassess decision
- Three to five concrete plan modifications that neutralize top failure scenarios
- Unflinching tone that names uncomfortable scenarios and calls out optimism-over-evidence
How it works:
Paste the prompt into ChatGPT, Claude, or any AI model. Answer five questions about your initiative, stakeholders, key assumptions, planning surprises, and your worst-case narrative. Get a 900–1,200 word pre-mortem analysis document.
Best used with:
Bundles or prompts related to strategic planning and risk management.
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